Bitcoin's cycle-adjusted MVRV percentile has fallen to 25.7% after repeated rejections near $87,000, according to analyst Darkfost. The reading sits in territory historically tied to accumulation, but it has not reached the extreme undervaluation band linked to major market lows.
Bitcoin's cycle-adjusted MVRV percentile has dropped to 25.7%, analyst Darkfost reported on October 18, 2026. The reading follows repeated failures to break through $87,000 and sits in a zone historically associated with accumulation.
What the MVRV reading measures
MVRV compares Bitcoin's market value against its realized value, which prices each coin at the moment it last moved on-chain. Darkfost's version does not use the raw ratio. Instead, it uses a percentile adjusted for market conditions across cycles, which ranks today's valuation against Bitcoin's own history.
At 25.7%, Bitcoin is in a band it has occupied only about 25% of the time. However, the reading has not entered the extreme undervaluation band that has historically lined up with major market lows.
Three rejections near $87,000
Bitcoin faced at least three price rejections near or above $87,000 between late September and early October 2026. When Darkfost's observation landed, the spot price sat between $81,700 and $81,900, a pullback from the resistance level buyers have failed to clear.
The research describes the recent selling as appearing capitulation-style and suggests it may set up a transitional accumulation phase.
Supply and ETF demand
The research indicates that long-term holders are distributing more coins than they are acquiring. US spot Bitcoin ETF products have been one candidate to absorb that supply. Net inflows were mildly positive in September 2026, but flows have since flattened or tipped into slight outflows in October.
The research frames a potential strategic entry as dependent on the market holding around $81,700 and showing signs of a bullish reversal. If outflows begin to outpace inflows in a meaningful way, the accumulation thesis loses one of its supporting legs.
Source: Crypto Briefing
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
