Cardano held above $0.2200 on Monday after a roughly 12% decline last week, but falling futures activity and a bearish chart leave the recovery without clear conviction. ADA now trades below its key moving averages, with $0.1894 as a potential downside target.
Cardano held above $0.2200 on Monday as buyers tried to steady the price after a roughly 12% decline last week. ADA has lost more than 10% so far in October, and weaker derivatives activity suggests limited conviction behind a recovery.
The daily chart remains under pressure after a break below trendline support near $0.2321 last week. With the token trading beneath its key moving averages, sellers keep the near-term advantage.
Falling open interest signals reduced exposure
CoinGlass data shows that Cardano futures open interest declined to $465.87 million from $549.14 million last week, a reduction of approximately 14.5%. The drop suggests reduced derivatives exposure, but it does not prove that retail traders alone are leaving the market. Falling ADA prices can reduce dollar-denominated open interest, and position closures and liquidations can also contribute.
The funding rate stayed positive at 0.0032%, meaning long positions were paying shorts in the tracked perpetual market. That suggests some traders are still positioned for a rebound, though funding alone does not demonstrate excessive leverage. However, a further price decline could put vulnerable long positions under pressure and trigger additional forced selling.
Large holders made only modest adjustments. According to Santiment data, wallets holding more than 100 million ADA accounted for 15.99% of circulating supply, slightly higher than 15.95% last week. The cohort holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA represented 38.11% of supply, down from 38.27%.
Technical outlook stays bearish
ADA continues to trade beneath its 50-day EMA near $0.2290 and its 200-day EMA around $0.2395. The MACD remains below zero with a negative histogram, while the RSI hovers around 41. ADA has not reached the conventional oversold threshold of 30.
If selling resumes, the psychological $0.20 level is an immediate downside reference. Below it, the August 30 low near $0.1894 represents the next structural support, about 14%–15% downside from the current price area.
On the upside, buyers first need to challenge the 50-day EMA at $0.2290, then the former trendline support near $0.2321, followed by the 200-day EMA at $0.2395. Until ADA recovers those levels, it remains exposed to further losses.
Source: CoinJournal
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