J.P. Morgan Asset Management has added Bitcoin to its long-term return forecasts for the first time. It projects 10% annual compounded returns over 10 to 15 years, above U.S. large-cap stocks, gold and real estate investment trusts. The bank also assumes 55% annualized volatility and keeps Bitcoin out of its main portfolio models.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management projects Bitcoin could deliver annual compounded returns of 10% over the next 10 to 15 years. That tops its forecasts for U.S. large-cap stocks, gold and real estate investment trusts. The figure comes from the firm's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released on October 19.
Bitcoin leads the comparison on returns
The forecast puts U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5%, U.S. real estate investment trusts at 8.2% and gold at 5.5%. JPMorgan also assigned Bitcoin an arithmetic average annual return of 20.9%. The report notes these figures do not guarantee Bitcoin will outperform any of those assets.
The return estimate comes with a substantial volatility assumption. JPMorgan projects annualized Bitcoin volatility at 55%, compared with approximately 18% for U.S. large-cap equities and 17.2% for gold. That makes the volatility assumption roughly three times the level assigned to either asset.
Bitcoin stays outside the main allocation models
Despite the forecast, JPMorgan has not added Bitcoin to its main covariance matrices used for long-term portfolio construction. The firm says Bitcoin's volatile performance and unstable correlations with conventional assets complicate its inclusion in strategic portfolios. Instead, the report includes a separate, smaller covariance matrix that examines Bitcoin alongside selected public-market assets.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan drew attention to the forecast on October 20. He also acknowledged that JPMorgan included several qualifications in the report. Bitwise manages cryptocurrency investment products and has a commercial interest in the digital asset market.
Traditional portfolios get a 7% forecast
JPMorgan's October 19 announcement projects a 7% annualized return for a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Its assumptions put global aggregate bond returns at approximately 5.3%, the highest forecast for that category in two decades.
The estimates rest on market conditions and assumptions available through September 30, 2026. JPMorgan says the forecasts are meant for long-term strategic allocations, not for next year's market performance.
Source: crypto.news
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