Mint sales and Indian fund buying added up to roughly 3.6 to 3.8 million ounces of silver in September, by an Investing.com analyst's count. The buying sits inside the Metals Focus and Silver Institute shortfall forecast rather than on top of it. India's easier import rules, arriving before its main buying festival, set up the next test.
Silver buying from mints and Indian funds came to roughly 3.6 to 3.8 million ounces in September, by the analyst's count. That is the buying the shortfall forecast needs to see arrive, and it confirms the forecast rather than making the shortfall bigger.
The analyst calls the picture mildly positive for the coming weeks, with one clear test. India has just made silver easier to import, ahead of its main buying festival in early November.
Rates drive silver's October
Interest rates have driven much of the month. Silver fell about 6% on October 14 after a hot US inflation report and has recovered part of that since. Kitco's late-afternoon reading on Wednesday put silver near $57.98 and gold near $4,141.01, a gold-silver ratio of about 71.4.
However, the Federal Reserve meets next week, and markets still expect another rate rise by December.
Coin buyers return from a low base
The US Mint sold about 275,000 one-ounce silver Eagles in September, up from 210,000 in August. The Mint sells only to authorised dealers, so the figure measures dealer orders rather than what investors finally bought.
Meanwhile, the Perth Mint sold 605,408 ounces in September, up 81% on the month. The mint attributes much of that to its first 2027 Lunar Year of the Goat coins.
The listed trusts tell a more cautious story. Units of the Sprott Physical Silver Trust traded at a 5.97% discount to the value of their metal on September 30, and Sprott's own page put the discount at 5.40% on October 21.
India: funds up, imports down
Money going into Indian silver funds rose 55% in September to ₹1,974 crore. Imports went the other way: India's commerce ministry put September silver imports at $665.08 million, down 49% on a year earlier.
On October 13, India's trade directorate set up a faster application route for new licences across four silver codes, starting October 15. The notices cut paperwork, not duty, and neither guarantees a quantity. Dhanteras, the day the festival begins, falls on November 6, and Diwali on November 8.
China's banks step back
At least a dozen Chinese banks are ending retail leveraged trading in gold and silver, acting at the Shanghai Gold Exchange's prompting, the South China Morning Post reported on September 25. Some of that money is being steered into accumulation plans, so the net effect on physical demand is unclear.
Heavy Indian buying over the festival season would make this more than a modest positive for silver, the analyst writes.
Source: Investing.com
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