Bitfinex analysts warn of a third October liquidation wave after futures positions grew while Bitcoin fell. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows slowed, but they did not turn into inflows.
Bitfinex Alpha analysts identified $79,821 as a potential trigger for forced selling, and estimated that a recovery above $84,400 would put the average Bitcoin ETF investor back in profit.
Leverage rebuilds near the $79,821 trigger
Bitfinex said traders had rebuilt leveraged exposure without the sustained spot buying its analysts consider necessary for a healthy recovery. The firm reported that futures open interest rose 4.3% between Oct. 12 and 15 even as Bitcoin declined.
Its downside scenario centers on a break below $79,821, followed by selling within an accumulation band spanning $77,600–$80,400. However, Bitfinex expects $81,300 to sit near the middle of the weekly trading range, with its bearish scenario carrying a higher probability than a sustained recovery.
ETF withdrawals ease without returning to inflows
Farside Investors' data show Bitcoin ETFs lost $228.4 million during Oct. 12–16, compared with $678.9 million during Oct. 5–9. Calculated from those totals, weekly net withdrawals fell 66.4%.
Across the latest five sessions, Tuesday's $175.7 million inflow and Thursday's $5.1 million inflow failed to offset withdrawals on the other three days. Wednesday accounted for the largest loss at $261.4 million.
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at ViaBTC, viewed the smaller outflow as a possible sign that selling pressure was easing. Bitfinex's demand indicators offered less reassurance, though: its analysts estimated net 30-day apparent demand at approximately negative 50,000 BTC.
Analysts see resilience, not renewed conviction
DWF Labs described Bitcoin's performance against technology stocks as resilience without renewed appetite for risk. Its briefing put Bitcoin's weekly decline at 2.47%, against a 4.43% drop in the Nasdaq.
Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, attributed Bitcoin's difficulty breaking out to weaker buying financed through leverage and debt. According to Sun: "Existing holders show no strong urge for concentrated sell-offs", but new long-term allocation demand is not yet sufficient for a sustained breakout.
Sun expects range-bound trading until financial conditions improve. He said a recovery in ETF buying would require lower real interest rates and financing costs.
Source: crypto.news
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